By William B. Conerly Ph.D.
Businomics connects the dots among the financial system and daily company judgements including:
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Extra resources for Businomics From The Headlines To Your Bottom Line: How to Profit in Any Economic Cycle
Monetary Policy 44 The Federal Reserve influences both the money supply (the number of dollars circulating in the form of currency or bank account balances) and short-term interest rates. Sometimes the Fed focuses on money supply, and sometimes on interest rates, but the result is that when the Fed tightens Chapter 3. How to Anticipate Recessions and Downturns (slows growth of the money supply and raises interest rates), the economy slows down. Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz’s classic work, A Monetary History of the United States: 1867 to 1960, laid out the case for monetary policy as the major force in the business cycle.
That would have made it impossible to see any lesser changes, but it’s something that should be kept in mind: Wars can make federal spending go bonkers. Most federal nondefense spending is fairly stable, but program-level spending has substantial ups and downs. For 31 Businomics example, it’s a good bet that the United States will continue to spend money on environmental cleanup. But that does not mean a specific project will continue. Projects come and go. Sometimes they go because the project has been completed, while at other times projects go because political support has waned.
But the collapse of business and consumer confidence caused by the Gulf War buildup probably pushed us over the brink. The real estate problems and the thrift industry crisis also contributed to the downturn. One problem may remove the economy’s “cushion” or margin for error, allowing a second or third problem to be the straw that breaks the economy’s back. Here, in this chapter, I’ll present the leading straws, in their order of importance. What Really Causes Recessions? 42 To anticipate a recession or downturn, a business leader must understand the causes of recessions and downturns.
Businomics From The Headlines To Your Bottom Line: How to Profit in Any Economic Cycle by William B. Conerly Ph.D.