By Andy Chambers, Phil Kelly, Graham McNeill
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2 represents the situation. We can suppose that initially (at node 1), what the potential addict most prefers is to use the drug, then quit before permanent damage is done. However, by the time node 2 is reached, the potential addict will have become an actual addict and will choose to continue use. Still, Hammond argues, rigidity is satisfied in this example. For he claims (p. 36, line 1) 2 Lehrer and Wagner (1985) argue for transitivity by showing that in a particular example, if you have intransitive preferences, then the following holds: If you make sequential choices myopically in accordance with those preferences, then you may end up with an option that you disprefer to some other option that was available.
If you knew you would at node 2 reverse your preference between / and g, you would not prefer to now have different preferences, and thus your preferences would not be modest. Thus an opponent of transitivity could agree that someone with modest preferences is irrational but claim that in the present example the irrationality derives, not from the violation of transitivity, but from the failure to change preferences appropriately when moving from node 1 to node 2. This would be the position of McClennen (1990).
Hence smoking maximizes my expected utility. Unqualified Bayesianism concludes that I am rational to go on smoking, and hence that I am in error in thinking that I ought to quit. But it seems at least as plausible to say that my norms are right and it is my preferences that ought to change. For another sort of example, suppose I prefer to go back into the house rather than cross a black cat in the street. Suppose further that this preference maximizes my expected utility, because I have a high probability for the claim that I will have bad luck if I cross a black cat.
Codex: Daemonhunters by Andy Chambers, Phil Kelly, Graham McNeill